Archive for the ‘KiwiWatch’ Category

Clark and Miliband (2003)

Friday, November 12th, 2010

It’s been interesting going back and reading some of Colin James’s columns from the last decade as I was preparing my post this week. Events and people in them take on different significance when you know what’s happened since.

I was particularly struck by this passage from a February 2003 column:

A short paper by a Scottish Labour MP, David Miliband, has been circulating among the Labour intelligentsia. It has had a stimulatory effect, including on a senior minister or two and, I am told, even on Heather Simpson, Clark’s most intimate and influential adviser.

Miliband reckons Tony Blair’s Labour government has “overperformed on most of its formal targets”. But this “ticking boxes” is not enough. “Themes, not policies, win elections… Themes without policies lack substance but policies on their own are arid”. In any case, adds Fabian Society secretary Michael Jacobs, in another circulating paper, policies often take a long time to work and are little understood by voters.

The famous Blair “third way”, says Miliband, despite its worldwide influence on once-socialist parties, is “defined negatively “. To turn Labour into “an all-pervasive political movement”, the party must:

  • develop “civic and social institutions that provide opportunity and security for all” and become known for those institutions,
  • build a machine capable of winning not just elections but “campaigns” (for example, for accessible health care) that “anticipate changes in the economy and society”,
  • strengthen local government and
  • be “alive to the politics of insecurity” arising from the “economy, crime, public services, finance, identity and foreign policy” (or the right will exploit them) — to which you might add for this country, the Treaty.

And, Miliband says, Labour people “need to ensure our values drive our politics” and establish “clear goals” based on those values. “Ideas are more important than ever.”

David Miliband, of course, went on to become the heir apparent to the leadership of the UK Labour Party, although he lost out at the last moment to his own brother, Ed.

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

In Labour fails to convince on economic policy (Star-Times), Rod Oram is rather harsher than his earlier Nine to Noon radio spot (covered last week). He is particularly critical of Labour’s new policy on foreign investment:

. . . if foreign investors help the New Zealand dairy industry shift to far more sophisticated, higher-value products, there is a good case for having them here. Labour says those are the land investors it will approve, while it bans the rest.

It will be very difficult, though, for the government to pick the right projects. Other countries such as Ireland have learnt how to make difficult decisions about which foreign investments to support. Labour must convince us it can learn and apply them. If it doesn’t, its agricultural land policy will be a big liability in the business community.

I find this a little ironic, in light of Oram’s own suggestions on foreign investment on Nine to Noon a few weeks ago, as covered in my round-up at the time:

It would be far more interesting if approval was contingent, for example, on a large-scale investment that would improve the industrial capability of New Zealand and increases exports beyond a business-as-usual case. Or there would be safeguards, so for example if a foreign investor bought a New Zealand company any money that that company had received in the way of government R & D grants over, say, the previous five years were refunded. You could be an awful lot more strategic about that — as other countries have been.

If anything, that sounds rather more difficult to operationalise than what Labour is proposing. Though perhaps he has backed away what may have just been an off-the-cuff musing at the time. In any case, he concludes:

“John Key has no game plan for our cities and our farms so that we can compete and win in the global economy,” Goff told the conference. “I do.”

No he doesn’t. But at least he and his Labour colleagues are working on it.

(Oram’s Nine to Noon spot didn’t appear this week, due to the short week.) (Thanks, Samuel Parnell!)

Colin James looks at the Maori Party in The foreshore party’s long growth into realist politics (Fairfax papers):

What does this say to the Maori party as it gathers on Saturday? That it has reached or is close to the limits of what it can extract from National. National will not agree to a “Treaty-based constitution”, except in the formal sense that the Treaty is the founding document legitimising the imposition of constitutional colonial government.

. . . So on Saturday there will be congratulations for the leadership on the totemic wins. But the farsighted will ask what can be extracted from National for a second term after next year’s election which has not already been dealt with or set in train.

And in Science, John Key and the Singapore syndrome (Otago Daily Times) he continues last week’s discussion on science policy:

So what’s stopping Key deciding to lift the game? He could, for example, add $200 million new spending each year for five years, which would get us to around 1 per cent of GDP.

. . . Of course, it also means either taking money off somewhere else or delaying a return to a budget surplus. And many RS&T ideas produce no return and those that do can take up to 10 years for a return, whereas hip operations, national superannuation at age 65 and the like are here-and-now politics.

Nothing new from Brian Easton this week.

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

Turning science from problem to opportunity, Colin James’s column for the Fairfax papers this week, is about a soon-to-be-released report from Research, Science and Technology minister Wayne Mapp and former AgResearch chief executive Andrew West:

Mapp, who started slowly in RS&T because his main interest was defence (his “review” is about to reach his desk), has got enthusiastic. On Thursday he will scan the role of science over the next 20 years. He got West to find “demonstrable evidence in the New Zealand situation that expenditure on science leads to economic growth”.

West has done that and a lot more. His still very-much-under-wraps report goes far beyond a simple cost-benefit exercise. In his idiosyncratic manner he has crafted a bold, maybe even daring, strategy.

Yep, that sounds like Andrew West! I worked with him when he was NZQA chief executive and then Tertiary Education Commission chair in the early 2000’s, and had a little to do with him at AgResearch too. I’ll be interested to see his report.

Off that back of that Mapp will pitch for more funds. He is talking of a “modest but not insignificant” lift in the 2011 budget. Others in the swim think it might not be so modest if Key gets enthused and pulls rank on English. One option is an annual commitment of a significant additional sum, accumulating over time to a large lift in GDP terms.

Colin concludes:

Sir Peter [Gluckman, Key's Science Advisor], West and Mapp are putting to Key an opportunity.

It might be the wrong opportunity for Key or just too risky or too hard. But small hints suggest he might (just conceivably) go for it. If he does, the 2011 budget might (just conceivably) be his prime ministership’s defining day.

Writing in Otago Daily Times, Colin also looks at Squaring (or not) Labour’s economic nationalism circle. His take on the policy shift that I discussed an aspect of in my column yesterday is:

The new line reflects a conceptual shift.

Much of Labour has longed to escape the neoliberalism its 1980s government embraced. Its 2000s government knocked off some rough edges but could not disavow it. Now, in the aftermath of the great financial crisis (GFC), Labour can quote from a rising tide of hefty international writing.

. . . Labour’s hope is that the post-GFC new way-truth-and-light — when it can be seen and then codified after the global blindness subsides — is congenial to its instincts and values and frees it from the 1980s legacy.

. . . Certainly, Labour has been emboldened to act on the plausible premise that neoliberal economics is no longer convincing politics. The enemies of capitalism who lurk multitudinously within capitalism and who, in precipitating the GFC, did such wide and deep and still persisting damage have brought that about. Labour sees its economic nationalism as fitting this “changed world”.

Rod Oram also looks at Labour’s economic policy development in his weekly interview with Nine to Noon (audio). It’s difficult to summarise succinctly and I’d encourage you to have a listen for yourself, but in general he is cautiously optimistic but with some reservations and awaiting more analytics.

Rod also writes Rail revival will finally make a difference for the Star-Times:

The Key government was no fan of its predecessor’s decision to buy back rail, but it took a rational approach to the asset . . . The government vigorously tested the business case KiwiRail put to it before agreeing in May to invest $250m in this financial year. It agreed to invest a further $500m the next two years, subject to business-case approval.

. . . Such improvements will cut the Auckland to Wellington freight time to around 11 hours over the next two years, from 13 hours now. When this goal is achieved, KiwiRail, working closely with its export and freight forwarding customers, will be demonstrating the viability of rail. Hopefully, it will then be able to convince the government to make further investment.

My fellow blogger (and sometimes Policy Progress commenter) Big Cake is critical of the column, however, for ignoring what he sees as “the fundamental issue that parts of the rail network are commercial duds and, if not closed, will continue to weaken the rail network as a whole”

And, finally, Brian Easton writes for the Listener on Riceonomics, another in his series of articles about China. This one uses the massive public construction works of ancient China like the Forbidden City to illustrate “the central role of the economic surplus, including how it comes about, who shares it and what they do with it”.

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, October 13th, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

Colin James’s column for the Fairfax papers, Labour: perhaps the end of the beginning, is about the Labour Party conference this weekend:

MPs have been developing six “frameworks” and a number of other policy documents, drawing on outsiders as well as party supporters. The “frameworks” and a range of other policy items will be test-driven this weekend at open workshops and “new thinking” debates, then firmed into election policy. Some other topics will be canvassed at “fringe” meetings.

We will see at the weekend whether the “frameworks” amount to imaginative and fresh enough rethinking on which to base policy that can still be relevant in 2020 (the sort that Phil Goff’s gimmicky GST off fresh fruit and vegetables, opposed by some MPs, is not).

One which may qualify is Annette King’s use of an outside “commission” to rebase social policy on intervening in early childhood to avert expensive remediation or incarceration later. Instead of a child segment in the health, education, housing and welfare policies, those policies will grow out of this child-based policy. From among her advisers, academics Richie Poulton, David and Liz Craig and former Children’s Commissioner Cindy Kiro will figure at the conference. (Poulton is also on Sir Peter Gluckman’s group tackling this issue and on Anne Tolley’s early childhood education inquiry.)

David Craig is also a guest-poster at Policy Progress. You can read his State subsidisation of low wages and his trilogy on Reconceiving the welfare state (parts one, two and three).

Ruth Dyson took a cue from King and ran two day-long forums to canvass academic, professional and lobby group outsiders and unions. Her 2020 challenge is affordability, which she says can be met only by shifting the focus more heavily on to prevention and disease prevention. She has yet to produce a “framework”.

Economic debates will feature economist Ganesh Nana and journalist Bernard Hickey. The economic rethink draws on post-GFC writing searching for the “new normal”. One insider says: “The world economic order is changing, so policy platforms are changing, particularly in the developed world. Things that were out of bounds are now back in play. That gives an opportunity to flash ideas around old and new.”

The policy frameworks are also mentioned in Are we heading towards a greener government? (Otago Daily Times):

Environment is one of the six policy “frameworks” to be workshopped and debated at the Labour party’s conference this weekend.

The framework will talk of transition to a low-pollution economy. It will argue that, if necessary, short-term economic gain should be traded off for long-term environmental benefit.

It will talk of intergenerational fairness and needing to live within the earth’s capacity to support humans. So, make it easier for people to live more environmentally friendly lives. The government should promote strong, enforceable standards and, because it occupies about a third of the economy, lead by example.

It will propose re-tightening aspects of environmental regulation the government has loosened and toughening the emissions trading scheme, with strategies on energy, transport and land use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

But the main focus is on Department of Conservation director-general Al Morrison (a former journalist who some readers may recall as the political editor for Radio New Zealand, 1996-2002) and the speech he gave last week that attracted some media attention:

He analogised this rundown to the country’s economic performance in running nearly four decades of balance of payments current account deficits: “Our economy is dangerously exposed, seriously out of balance and facing huge adjustments. The prospect of getting back into balance is a distant one.”

. . . But Morrison is not a lefty sandal-wearer. He links the environment — and the conservation estate — with economic wellbeing. This is in two senses: that nice nature is one of the things we sell, to tourists and with our land-based products; and that there is money to be made out of this “natural capital”.

. . . for strategic planners in business and elsewhere the message is that greener policy settings are likely in due course.

Morrison has signposted a path for those strategists: to look for ways of working with environmentalists, including DoC, to make money and in the course of doing that, make New Zealanders more prosperous in a wider sense than simple GDP.

Rod Oram talks to Nine to Noon about the looming Currency Wars that I discussed on Friday. With regard to New Zealand he differs from Bernard Hickey’s analysis (which I reported in that post), saying:

In the short-term there’s not a lot we can do. We have a highly-traded currency and it bobs around on these international markets.

. . . there’s not a lot that people can do in the short-term. The Reserve Bank, thanks to the previous government, has some more minor powers to try to nudge the exchange rate at a turning point in the cycle (and we’re nowhere near one of those yet). But basically we, and even countries much larger than us, can’t intervene; the forces are too big.

But there’s a very important longer-term issue, which is that one of the reasons always for the strength of our currency is our relatively high interest rates here, which takes us right back to how monetary policy is conducted. And the view on our government about monetary policy is incredibly orthodox, it hasn’t changed much over the last fifteen years. Whereas there are very interesting new views coming out of the likes of the IMF that monetary policy perhaps needs to be run in a slightly different way, particularly in countries like ours which are very open economies.

Ryan: I’m always bemused as to what that different way is, beyond the flexibility that the former Finance Minister gave to ‘look through’ the cap or the maximum interest rate that the Reserve Bank governor’s supposed to work to, and to factor in other economic priorities. What else can you do?

Oram: Well those ideas that came up a few years ago were seriously bad ones. Like trying to put an extra levy on top of mortgages, for example, to try and curb those. What’s coming through is much more practical and rather more insightful. So, for example, the Reserve Bank has a new capital reserve requirement on the banks — we’re the first jurisdiction in the world to do it — which allows it to lean against lending if you like, so when lending is very strong it can increase the capital reserves the banks needs to have in place to try to slow that lending down. So that’s some of the new thinking that’s going on.

And it’s very interesting that Labour has picked up on that, and has already made it very clear that it’s going to campaign next year on this issue. So it’ll be very interesting to see, particularly if the currency pressures get a lot more extreme over the coming months, to what extent this will become an election issue. We can’t control our currency, but maybe there are ways to moderate its movements more than we’re doing.

Oram’s Star-Times column is NZ film stuck in muddle earth (“The film The Hobbit is a sideshow. The real drama is the survival of the New Zealand screen industry.”)

Nothing new from Brian Easton this week.

There needs to be room for politics in public management

Tuesday, October 12th, 2010

A few weeks ago I went along to an Institute of Policy Studies lunchtime seminar on the performance management of state sector organisations. It was given by Derek Gill (whose working paper The Future State I wrote about a few months ago) and Susan Hitchiner.

The seminar was reporting on the IPS’s Managing for Organisational Performance research project, which is a sort of stocktake of the system of public sector accountability put in place in New Zealand by the Public Finance Act and the State Sector Act in 1980s.

I found it dense but worthwhile. It was definitely intended for quite a particular audience, though: one that is really immersed in the system of Annual Reports, Statements of Intents, outcome measurement etc that make up the current formal accountability framework for the public sector.

This got me thinking about how — and whether — this connects to the kind of things we’ve been talking about and hoping to achieve here at Policy Progress.

In theory, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t. I certainly believe that the public service (a) understanding what you’re trying to do, (b) being committed to making it work, and (c) having the capability to back that up, are all vital ingredients for any progressive government’s agenda.

And an accountability framework could potentially be a valuable means to ensuring that.

And yet, I detect a twinge of disappointment from Gill and Hitchiner about politicians’ actual engagement with, and attitudes towards, the detailed and resource-intensive accountability framework that has been erected for their benefit over the last twenty years. As Gill gently puts it, “Ministers use of performance information was variable as their political leadership role requires a selective focus on a few issues.” Rather than working systematically through an department’s Statement of Service Performance and ensuring that they’re performing well across the board, Ministers seemed to want to concentrate on certain key things that they wanted to achieve, or where they felt at risk.

And similarly with Parliament. They get such a wealth of systematic and comprehensive information across the whole range of departmental activities, but do they use it properly? Gill reports “Little systematic use of performance information due to Ladley’s iron rule of political contest”. He then elucidated this nice turn of phrase from Andrew Ladley (who himself spent nearly three years in the Beehive as Chief of Staff of the Alliance party) with a quote from ex-State Services Commisioner Mark Prebble’s new book: “Parliament uses performance information not to improve the Executive’s performance but in order to attack the Executive”.

Gill and Hitchiner are not surprised by this and understand and accept the dynamics at work. But you still get the feeling it’s a bit of a pity.

Even so, this doesn’t seem to be a major impediment. If politicians don’t care about and utilise the public management system we’ve erected, then we’ll identify others who do. As the discussion continues, they explain how the accountability framework can best be used by some public servants (chief executives, control agencies) to monitor and manage other public servants.

Listening to this, I begin to wonder: who does “we” mean in all of this? A lot of those in the room weren’t public servants (many were academics), yet they all seemed interested and heavily invested in a system for keeping the wheels of government running smoothly and effectively in a way that largely abstracted from any kind of political contest (or “the authorising environment”, as they call it).

At one point Susan Hitchiner even talked about “reducing political contest in relation to outcomes” (although, to be fair, I’m not entirely clear if she was actually advocating that). This got me thinking about how far removed the discussion (erudite and thoughtful as it was on its own terms) was from addressing the needs and aspirations of people trying to develop and then implement a progressive agenda. (And presumably it was equally remote from our opposite numbers on the other side of politics.)

Let’s leave aside the idea of taking the politics out of which outcomes to pursue and prioritise (which can only be done by expressing them in such a generic motherhood-and-apple-pie way as to make them meaningless). Even the idea of depoliticising the supposedly ‘technical’ process of how to most effectively achieve our desired outcome is fraught. In my view, it misunderstands the nature of many of the difference between political ideologies.

Progressives differ from conservatives not just on what kind of society they want to achieve, but also (in some ways moreso) on the best and most appropriate means to deliver that.

The currently quite topical issue of public-private partnerships offers a good illustration of this. From a technocratic perspective, this is but one means to a desired end. It can thus be evaluated quite dispassionately on objective criteria, and an assessment made about its suitability in a particular context.

But this does not adequately capture why many conservatives are so keen to pursue this avenue. Nor why many progressives are so opposed to it. Those reasons are intricately bound up with ideas about the relative roles (and efficacy) of the public and private sectors that are quite fundamental to both political perspectives. They are not likely to be dislodged by citing one or two research findings for or against.

(I’m not saying here that political positions are completely unresponsive to empirical evidence. Over time, various assumptions that have been held by one or other political perspective have in fact been largely discarded in response to the weight of evidence and experience. But political partisans will be, quite properly, slow and cautious about making such a shift, and expect a high standard of proof.)

So, what does this mean for a system of public management that seeks to make public sector organisations accountable for delivering on the electoral mandate given to a progressive (or other) political programme? It needs to accept, as Gill and Hitchiner have recognised, that such programmes are not strongly concerned with managing business-as-usual (which is inevitably encompasses a large proportion of a departments’ activity), though they will want to have confidence that this is being well-managed.

An accountability framework needs to provide politicians with an easy-to-use mechanism for holding agencies accountable for carrying out their progamme, as they conceive it. To do this, it needs to be responsive to the inevitable and legitimate fact that programme will encompass a mix of: broad outcomes or aspirations; particular outputs or initiatives (perhaps ones that party activists have championed within the party’s manifesto process); plus some views or preferences as to which ways of achieving things are effective or appropriate.

This is probably much less tidy than the traditional framework, but it is also more responsive to the democratic process that the system of accountability is supposed to serve.

With this is mind, there may be some value in dialogue between the public administration experts seeking to reform and reframe our system of public management and those of us thinking about public service effectiveness in relation to a particular political project. Such an exchange might enrich both group’s agendas.


PS Many Policy Progress readers will be interested to learn that the Institute of Policy Studies has also announced a full-day policy forum for 16 November entitled Does Inequality Matter? and featuring a keynote speech from one of the authors of The Spirit Level. Visit the IPS website to learn more and to book for this free event.

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

Brian Easton’s latest Listener column is Reserve Bank to the Rescue, which looks at Alan Bollard and his book Crisis: One Central Bank Governor and the Global Financial Collapse. He considers that “readers will be delighted with the book’s honesty and transparency. It is a damned good read.” But he also notes:

Whereas the book ends, the crisis has not – or rather the international monetary crisis is morphing into a long recession, in which there will be employment and production crises. New Zealand will be unable to avoid the consequences, and the Reserve Bank will remain under pressure managing the economy.

Brian also publishes an index of his recent writings on the Global Financial Crisis.

Colin James has four new pieces this week. The long and the short of “what works” (Fairfax papers) focuses on the “Canterbury Earthquake Response and Recovery Act’s quasi-regal powers to override laws through Orders-in-Council, in order to get Canterbury fixed fast”:

The immediate effect of the Canterbury law is necessary quick action. The medium-term effect is assurance of a return to economic and social normality. The long-term risk is damage to freedoms and trust, without which liberal democracy and capitalism don’t work well.

Interestingly, he also also notes in passing a parallel concern about the recent tax cuts:

Take English’s inequality-increasing tax changes. This week they affect your wellbeing (and the budget, at a half-billion-dollar cost through to March). The medium-term effect, English insists, is 1 per cent added to wealth production. The potential long-term effect is that higher inequality, if not offset, may limit potential growth, as in many underperforming economies.

His column for the Otago Daily Times asks Is a new big local government reshuffle in the offing? (“it is logical that the mayors of Wellington, Christchurch, Hamilton and Tauranga have been conferring over joint actions and that some local politicians have begun pushing for their own super-regions.”)

In Not cleaning up on clean-tech (Management magazine), Colin reports on differing attitudes within the government towards the environment:

John Key has habitually talked of “balance”, which implies a zero-sum calculation that more environment equals less economic growth and vice-versa.

It’s not quite as simple as that.

. . . [Agriculture Minister David] Carter knows, and Key understands — he did, after all, back Smith in resisting heavy pressure from Business New Zealand and Federated Farmers to delay the emissions trading scheme — that, as some put it, “the new regulators are the big retail chains”.

. . . Dairy farmers who don’t get the message will at some point fall behind the game. Forestry companies are getting to know they have to meet tough international standards to make premium sales. There is now a world water alliance of big companies and NGOs.

[Environment Minister Nick] Smith understands this. In the 1990s National cabinet he and Simon Upton were lone environmentalist voices. In 2002 the Blue Greens National ginger group Smith championed was a minor strand, with three MP members. Now it has 18 MPs and attracts a sizable annual conference.

But it has yet to seriously influence core government policy . . .  Bill English is sceptical and has a tight grip on state finances that could fund research and joint projects.

. . . The message so far: if clean-tech is to take off in New Zealand the private sector will have to get there pretty much on its own — or in cahoots with foreigners who see an opportunity to piggy-back on the 100 per cent pure brand.

And, unusually, he has published a ‘random thought’ on the latest Paul Henry débâcle, entitled Real New Zealanders.

Rod Oram’s Star-Times column Failing to keep up with the neighbours looks at funding for universities. His arguments have already attracted criticism from my Education Direction colleague Dave Guerin at ED Blog:

Rod has a tendency to come up with elegant plans for industry and the government to implement to create wealth, which usually involve medium to heavy government intervention and high industry cooperation. I usually don’t agree with them, but at least he makes a strong and cogent argument in their favour. In this case, his argument is very, very weak and he ends with a cheap shot at government that he simply does not establish in his column.

“It’s clear that this government, like its predecessors, understands only the cost not the value of universities. As a result, it is relegating us to a much poorer future.”

Rod might get more traction for his arguments if he treated those with which he disagreed with a little more respect. Suggesting that others only focus on cost, rather than your focus on value, is rather odd after you have spent a whole column arguing for higher inputs, especially salaries, for your own industry.

Rod’s talk with Radio NZ’s Nine to Noon this week looks at the film and television industrial relations debate centred on Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit.

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

In the Fairfax paper this week, Colin James asks, Will unequal tax cuts be good for the economy? After covering the usual contestation between government and opposition about who gains what from the October 1 changes, he concludes by saying:

Much has been made of the rise in income and wealth inequality since the 1980s in our sorts of “Anglo” economies.

That may be an element in recent political volatility and might partially explain conservative parties’ failure in Britain and Australia to win majorities in otherwise propitious circumstances: the 1950s-60s upward socioeconomic mobility stalled in the 1980s. In turn it may be a factor in faltering economic growth, now the house-bubble-borrow-and-spend taps have been turned off.

Intriguingly, the Economist magazine, not noted for soggy leftism, several times directly linked inequality to growth rates in a recent survey of Latin America: the more unequal a country, the slower its economic growth.

Of course, Latin America is different. Isn’t it?

Colin’s Otago Daily Times column is The long haul back out of the 2000s economic haze, another look at our economic situation and economic prospects:

New Zealanders were the most indebted in the developed world after now-bust Iceland. That debt was lent by foreigners: New Zealand’s country debt to the rest of the world, at 86 per cent of GDP, poses a risk that in another global shock credit lines might be pulled in.

But:

Despite our 2000s profligacy, we have a real possibility of a reasonable decade ahead. We may even, with luck, avoid a house price plunge: prices might just go sideways and let inflation engineer the fall of 30 per cent or so in real terms needed to align with fundamentals.

That however depends on exports to Australia and China, and they both have their own problems. Australia is heavily reliant on mining (as Rod Oram has noted previously) while  China needs to contend with “water; widening social and economic divisions; corruption”.

Rod Oram’s Star-Times column, Water forum offers sign of hope, covers the Land and water Forum, as Colin James did last week. Rod is a bit more cautious than Colin about whether Nick Smith has achieved a break-through in collaborative processes:

. . . it remains to be seen how far the government will buy into the forum’s recommendations. If it treats them as a framework for an enduring consensus on water, then it could run a robust, publicly supported national water strategy.

Then it, business, environmental and other lobby groups and the wider public would want to use the collaborative process to find common ground on other very difficult issues such as energy strategy, adaptation to climate change, urban land use and design, or even the likes of savings and superannuation.

But if the government treated the forum’s recommendations as a menu from which it selected politically acceptable items, or worse rejected others under pressure from lobby groups, it would make a mockery of the collaborative process. It would leave us mired in the same old adversarial politics.

Rod also talks to Nine to Noon about Transpower versus the business lobby and the government’s changes to the rules for foreign investment. He sets out some interesting ideas of his own for the latter:

Oram: It would be far more interesting if approval was contingent, for example, on a large-scale investment that would improve the industrial capability of New Zealand and increases exports beyond a business-as-usual case. Or there would be safeguards, so for example if a foreign investor bought a New Zealand company any money that that company had received in the way of government R & D grants over, say, the previous five years were refunded. You could be an awful lot more strategic about that — as other countries have been.

Ryan: Unless you lose your investment to other countries.

Oram: No but other countries are strategic. They know what they want, and they know what to ask for and expect from foreign investors. And we don’t.

Brian Easton publishes an index of his articles on gambling economics.

If you have thoughts about the issues raised by our commentators this week, or other interesting pieces of commentary you’d like to highlight, then leave a comment below!

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

There are five new items on Brian Easton’s website this week. One of them is Costs and Benefits and Alcohol Policy, a note for a symposium in Barcelona next month. It follows on from his previous work in this area, as discussed by Ayesha Verrall in her Policy Progress guest-post last week. He also publishes an index of alcohol and related studies.

Easton has also produced two pieces that touch on the Canterbury earthquake: The Canterbury Earthquake and the South Canterbury Meltdown and Christchurch as a Global City. From the latter:

At the moment the focus is on reconstruction of the city; that effort gives you a little time to think about how you might pursue your vision for Christchurch. Sure the earthquake was a shock but the reconstruction provides an opportunity to continue Canterbury’s tradition of respect for its past with an excitement about its future. Turn the shakes into an opportunity.

And his Listener column is The Bottom Line (“Selling products around the world is much more complicated than it once seemed.”)

Colin James writes on How ACT could help Labour to win in 2011 and how not (Otago Daily Times), which has a look at the electoral arithmetic, and New ways of thinking about water and the environment (Fairfax papers), which looks at the Land and Water Forum:

The forum is composed of 57 groups with an interest in water ranging from iwi and conservation lobbies to dairy farmers and Fonterra. Its brief: through a “small group” of 20, to talk its way to consensus on new foundations for water policy.

This is a new way of doing policy, potentially useful for knotty issues because it promises a more durable foundation for policy than the ideology and instincts of one major party plus small parties — which was Labour’s approach, with the Greens and New Zealand First, in legislating the ETS and then National’s, with the Maori party, in softening it. Seesaw policy is bad for business and democratic stability.

Labour couldn’t make the leap to the outside-consensus route. Smith cottoned on and got the cabinet to go along on water. Ministers had to agree to tell interest groups not to come to them while the forum was meeting. Iwi still had their Treaty of Waitangi pipeline to Key but they played ball inside the forum.

Water policy is a recurring theme of James’s:

Living in a wet country, New Zealanders have thought of water as “free”, with plenty for heritage, spiritual, recreational, tourism, personal sustenance, land based industries, manufacturing, commercial and electricity uses.

But not any more. In places it is over-allocated. And spreading more water to grow more cows mucks up waterways and risks damaging high-end tourism, coastal aquaculture and drinking-water — and the fresh-natural-safe country brand.

Rod Oram’s Star-Times column says the New Zealand accountancy profession is out of step internationally in its neglect of sustainability. To some extent it’s taken its cue from the current Key-English-Hide government:

. . . the government doesn’t understand the practical, immediate benefits of sustainability or the way this field is becoming the bedrock of good businesses and the driver of new ones such as clean technology.

It hates the word sustainability, even though the term is used worldwide. As soon as it took office in 2008, it banned the word from government and axed or drastically cut supporting programmes.

Sadly, many businesses took their cue from government and backed off on sustainability. The local accounting profession followed suit, walking away from the leadership role its colleagues are playing overseas.

And on Nine to Noon, he once again looks at the Auckland local body election from a business and economic perspective.

The top issues for District Health Boards

Tuesday, September 21st, 2010

This week’s column had been scheduled to be on ‘The Third Way’ as part of our Theoretical Foundations series. But a lot of my time over the last few days has been taken up with my campaign for election to the Capital and Coast District Health Board in the local body elections that are now underway (the voting period finishes on Saturday 9 October).

So, as a substitute, I present below a cross-post from my Care not Cuts campaign website, setting out what I consider to be the five top issues in the DHB elections. I hope you will find it of interest. While the description is framed primarily in relation to the Capital and Coast district, the issues are broadly applicable to all DHBs. I also feel that this post, when placed in the Policy Progress context, provides a useful complement to Dr Ayesha Verrall’s excellent recent guest-post Why the Left values health.


1. Funding adequacy

The current government has cut back health funding increases to fund tax cuts, and the Capital and Coast community has been particularly hard-hit. The DHB’s well-respected chief executive Ken Whelan recently resigned, saying he could not cut any more: “I cannot see where any more major efficiency can come from without negatively impacting on services.”  A Dominion Post editorial has said, “unless the Government changes its mind, health board administrators will have no option but to reduce the quantity or quality of services on offer to residents of the Wellington region”. This is not acceptable.

The District Health Board has to manage its finances prudently, and that can be mean hard decisions. We also need to work for smart solutions to the charges for building the New Regional Hospital and ensure we are properly funded to act as a tertiary referral centre for the whole region.

But the Board also needs to be clear, honest and direct with the Minister of Health and you the public about the level of funding that is needed to adequately address our community’s health – and what the consequences will be if that is not met. I commit to ensuring this.

2. Addressing health inequalities

The District Health Board needs to be continually aware of health inequalities within the communities it serves and invest in services in a way that helps to address them. We know that people in poorer communities suffer poorer health than those who are wealthier. This is compounded through lower access to or take-up of health services – poorer communities have a higher rate of hospitalisations that would have been avoidable through good primary care or outpatient care. As a consequence, as New Zealand has become a more unequal society over the 1980s and 1990s, disparities have widened – new research published in the New Zealand Medical Journal shows the gap in life expectancy between low income and high income widened by 2.1 years for males and 1.4 years for females between 1981 and 2001.

At a time of tight budgets, it is vital for the Board to prioritise the preservation and expansion of initiatives that have been shown to reduce health inequalities. These will tend to include community health, health promotion and illness prevention, and measures to make primary health care more accessible in poorer communities.

3. Giving priority to child health

Sadly, inequalities have become particularly severe in child health, where New Zealand compares poorly internationally. The Public Health Advisory Committee describes some of New Zealand’s disease patterns among children as “closer to those of developing countries”. The Capital and Coast community is by no means immune to these disparities: Porirua children are admitted to hospital for serious respiratory and skin infections at twice the rate of Wellington children. Even worse, children living in Eastern Porirua (Cannon’s Creek and Waitangirua) have the highest rate of rheumatic fever in New Zealand.

I support the development of a plan of action to address child health disparities in high need communities, which will require meaningful additional investment.

4. Listening to the whole range of health professionals

District Health Board members have a governance role and a duty to reflect the priorities and needs of the communities they serve. Obviously that doesn’t mean micro-managing the organisation or making clinical decisions.  To do this, we need to respect and listen to the health professionals within the organisation and in the community – and to insist that DHB managers do the same. That means nurses, doctors, rehabilitation professionals, midwives, heath promotion workers, social workers, cleaners and all the people working together to ensure your care is of an excellent standard.

5. Being connected with the community

Legislation currently before Parliament would change some of the ways that District Health Boards operate. One of the troubling aspects is a move to remove communities’ rights to consultation when the boards’ annual plans are developed. I’m committed to meaningful community consultation — whether the law requires it or not. And I think we need to develop better and more modern ways to reach out to a wide range of people and involve them in the decisions that are being made about health services in their communities. If elected, I’ll use my website – carenotcuts.org.nz – to keep people informed about the issues the board is grappling with and the debates we’re having in (the public parts of) our meetings. And I’ll be pushing for the whole board – and the media – to be promoting stronger engagement with you the public with what we’re doing, particularly when contentious decisions are being taken.

Authorised by F Fitzsimons, 608/120 Courtenay Place, Wellington.

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, September 15th, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

Colin James’s Fairfax column this week is Shifting the ground on Maori claims and rights. It focuses on Waitangi Tribunal claim 262, which seeks hapu and whanau control over native flora and fauna, uses to which they are put and traditional practices and knowledge around them. A report from Judge Joe Williams is due on the claim.

Williams . . .  hopes to publish it this year. It would help John Key if he did because this is a bigger quake than the foreshore and seabed and Key won’t want aftershocks running through next year’s election.

There are two main dimensions.

One is intellectual property — stopping companies copyrighting or patenting plants and other “life-forms” and using Maori images and artworks in trademarks and the like. This has widespread implications for the food, beauty and medicine industries, here and abroad. It has implications for free trade agreements which typically now include intellectual property.

The other dimension, as James Matenga, a master of business student, put it at a seminar last Thursday, is “to re-establish our own values and law that works for us”, not to “be successful according to pakeha values and laws”. The “us” are not New Zealanders, nor even Maori. The “us”, according to fellow student Patrick Hape are whanau and hapu, each with unique knowledge and practices (matauranga maori) which are their property alone.

. . . This is beyond the Treaty of Waitangi, to pick up the theme of Williams’ speech at the constitutional conference on September 2. WAI262 is a matter of indigenous rights, of which the Treaty is just one expression.

James’s Otago Daily Times column, Testing the liberal principle of unity in difference, follows up by drawing a (distant) connection between the clash of religions typified by Pastor Terry Jones’s Koran-burning threat and Treaty relations in New Zealand.

Rod Oram’s Radio New Zealand commentary this week was on the latest developments on high-speed broadband and Trans-Tasman aviation.

His Star-Times column, meanwhile, returns to his theme about the governance of Auckland with a piece entitled Still time to hold their feet to the fire. After restating his view of the challenges the city faces, he writes:

Take the two mayoral front-runners, John Banks and Len Brown. They have peppered us with pronouncements and platitudes on all sorts of issues. But it’s impossible to detect in either candidate any over-arching principles, underlying logic, detailed workplan or specific, measurable commitments.

It’s no surprise that each musters less than 30% support in the polls. On a more positive note, though, that means they have yet to convince more than half the region’s population. They have everything to play for in the four weeks until the polls close on October 9.

So, hold their feet to the fire. Think about a couple of important things you think the mayor has to achieve, discuss them with your family, friends and colleagues, go to candidate meetings, write, email or in other ways try to work out where they stand on your issues. Consider also who seems best at dealing with the huge complexity of issues and relationships the new structure will demand. Then vote.

There are no new articles from Brian Easton this week.