Posts Tagged ‘science’

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

In Labour fails to convince on economic policy (Star-Times), Rod Oram is rather harsher than his earlier Nine to Noon radio spot (covered last week). He is particularly critical of Labour’s new policy on foreign investment:

. . . if foreign investors help the New Zealand dairy industry shift to far more sophisticated, higher-value products, there is a good case for having them here. Labour says those are the land investors it will approve, while it bans the rest.

It will be very difficult, though, for the government to pick the right projects. Other countries such as Ireland have learnt how to make difficult decisions about which foreign investments to support. Labour must convince us it can learn and apply them. If it doesn’t, its agricultural land policy will be a big liability in the business community.

I find this a little ironic, in light of Oram’s own suggestions on foreign investment on Nine to Noon a few weeks ago, as covered in my round-up at the time:

It would be far more interesting if approval was contingent, for example, on a large-scale investment that would improve the industrial capability of New Zealand and increases exports beyond a business-as-usual case. Or there would be safeguards, so for example if a foreign investor bought a New Zealand company any money that that company had received in the way of government R & D grants over, say, the previous five years were refunded. You could be an awful lot more strategic about that — as other countries have been.

If anything, that sounds rather more difficult to operationalise than what Labour is proposing. Though perhaps he has backed away what may have just been an off-the-cuff musing at the time. In any case, he concludes:

“John Key has no game plan for our cities and our farms so that we can compete and win in the global economy,” Goff told the conference. “I do.”

No he doesn’t. But at least he and his Labour colleagues are working on it.

(Oram’s Nine to Noon spot didn’t appear this week, due to the short week.) (Thanks, Samuel Parnell!)

Colin James looks at the Maori Party in The foreshore party’s long growth into realist politics (Fairfax papers):

What does this say to the Maori party as it gathers on Saturday? That it has reached or is close to the limits of what it can extract from National. National will not agree to a “Treaty-based constitution”, except in the formal sense that the Treaty is the founding document legitimising the imposition of constitutional colonial government.

. . . So on Saturday there will be congratulations for the leadership on the totemic wins. But the farsighted will ask what can be extracted from National for a second term after next year’s election which has not already been dealt with or set in train.

And in Science, John Key and the Singapore syndrome (Otago Daily Times) he continues last week’s discussion on science policy:

So what’s stopping Key deciding to lift the game? He could, for example, add $200 million new spending each year for five years, which would get us to around 1 per cent of GDP.

. . . Of course, it also means either taking money off somewhere else or delaying a return to a budget surplus. And many RS&T ideas produce no return and those that do can take up to 10 years for a return, whereas hip operations, national superannuation at age 65 and the like are here-and-now politics.

Nothing new from Brian Easton this week.

Commentary round-up

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

A regular feature spotlighting new writing (and audio) from top commentators Rod Oram, Colin James and Brian Easton.

Turning science from problem to opportunity, Colin James’s column for the Fairfax papers this week, is about a soon-to-be-released report from Research, Science and Technology minister Wayne Mapp and former AgResearch chief executive Andrew West:

Mapp, who started slowly in RS&T because his main interest was defence (his “review” is about to reach his desk), has got enthusiastic. On Thursday he will scan the role of science over the next 20 years. He got West to find “demonstrable evidence in the New Zealand situation that expenditure on science leads to economic growth”.

West has done that and a lot more. His still very-much-under-wraps report goes far beyond a simple cost-benefit exercise. In his idiosyncratic manner he has crafted a bold, maybe even daring, strategy.

Yep, that sounds like Andrew West! I worked with him when he was NZQA chief executive and then Tertiary Education Commission chair in the early 2000’s, and had a little to do with him at AgResearch too. I’ll be interested to see his report.

Off that back of that Mapp will pitch for more funds. He is talking of a “modest but not insignificant” lift in the 2011 budget. Others in the swim think it might not be so modest if Key gets enthused and pulls rank on English. One option is an annual commitment of a significant additional sum, accumulating over time to a large lift in GDP terms.

Colin concludes:

Sir Peter [Gluckman, Key's Science Advisor], West and Mapp are putting to Key an opportunity.

It might be the wrong opportunity for Key or just too risky or too hard. But small hints suggest he might (just conceivably) go for it. If he does, the 2011 budget might (just conceivably) be his prime ministership’s defining day.

Writing in Otago Daily Times, Colin also looks at Squaring (or not) Labour’s economic nationalism circle. His take on the policy shift that I discussed an aspect of in my column yesterday is:

The new line reflects a conceptual shift.

Much of Labour has longed to escape the neoliberalism its 1980s government embraced. Its 2000s government knocked off some rough edges but could not disavow it. Now, in the aftermath of the great financial crisis (GFC), Labour can quote from a rising tide of hefty international writing.

. . . Labour’s hope is that the post-GFC new way-truth-and-light — when it can be seen and then codified after the global blindness subsides — is congenial to its instincts and values and frees it from the 1980s legacy.

. . . Certainly, Labour has been emboldened to act on the plausible premise that neoliberal economics is no longer convincing politics. The enemies of capitalism who lurk multitudinously within capitalism and who, in precipitating the GFC, did such wide and deep and still persisting damage have brought that about. Labour sees its economic nationalism as fitting this “changed world”.

Rod Oram also looks at Labour’s economic policy development in his weekly interview with Nine to Noon (audio). It’s difficult to summarise succinctly and I’d encourage you to have a listen for yourself, but in general he is cautiously optimistic but with some reservations and awaiting more analytics.

Rod also writes Rail revival will finally make a difference for the Star-Times:

The Key government was no fan of its predecessor’s decision to buy back rail, but it took a rational approach to the asset . . . The government vigorously tested the business case KiwiRail put to it before agreeing in May to invest $250m in this financial year. It agreed to invest a further $500m the next two years, subject to business-case approval.

. . . Such improvements will cut the Auckland to Wellington freight time to around 11 hours over the next two years, from 13 hours now. When this goal is achieved, KiwiRail, working closely with its export and freight forwarding customers, will be demonstrating the viability of rail. Hopefully, it will then be able to convince the government to make further investment.

My fellow blogger (and sometimes Policy Progress commenter) Big Cake is critical of the column, however, for ignoring what he sees as “the fundamental issue that parts of the rail network are commercial duds and, if not closed, will continue to weaken the rail network as a whole”

And, finally, Brian Easton writes for the Listener on Riceonomics, another in his series of articles about China. This one uses the massive public construction works of ancient China like the Forbidden City to illustrate “the central role of the economic surplus, including how it comes about, who shares it and what they do with it”.

Oram v Callaghan: which way should science be going? [re-post]

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

Originally posted on 16 March 2010




Rod Oram has a column in the latest Sunday Star-Times (not online) that discusses reforms to science funding. There’s some good points in the article (and a few others I don’t agree with so much), but the main thing that struck me was when he discussed the scientific and commercialisation work that the Crown Research Institute (CRI) Industrial Research Ltd had done on superconductors:

But it will take many years to develop the product lines into sizable businesses – and the chance of New Zealand being home to much of that is minimal. We have virtually no experience, scale or markets in these areas of science, technology and manufacturing.

From a commercial perspective it was completely the wrong science to pursue. We must focus instead on the life and environmental fields where we have the scale and the leadership to attract international collaborators.

Sounds sensible. But here’s Paul Callaghan, probably New Zealand’s most high-profile scientist, in his 2009 book Wool to Weta. Transforming New Zealand’s Culture & Economy:

Given our capability in physical sciences and engineering, I think we could generate many more start-ups of the Rakon/Navman variety, and if a fraction of them succeed we may do far better than via the biotechnology route favoured by government. (p. 15)

. . . I am not advocating spending less on biotech research. But I am suggesting that we shouldn’t apply blinkers, that we do have a track record of producing great businesses out of physical sciences and engineering and that we have the potential to a great deal more. (p. 17)

. . . We should discard the myth that because we are good at farming, our best high-technology future lies necessarily in biotechnology. (p. 20)

I have a great deal of admiration for both Oram and Callaghan. I think they are two of New Zealand’s most insightful writers on science and innovation issues. Yet on this crucial issue of where we should be focussing our research capability, they fundamentally disagree.

Who is right? I do not know. But I do think this is an important issue, and it’s striking that this disagreement hasn’t really come to light before now. What that says to me is that (while successive governments have set out ‘official’ views) there hasn’t really been any robust public discussion about where New Zealand should be putting its science dollar.

One other thing: Oram suggests that we need “politicians and bureaucrats to give up micro-management and second-guessing and learn how to trust the scientists, their managers and directors to make good science and business decisions.”

Again, sounds good. But if you give the money to Industrial Research Ltd and leave them to make decisions, they aren’t going to invest in the life and environmental fields, are they? That’s where other CRIs are focussed, not IRL.

Key decisions about the appropriate allocation of science funding between different areas have already been made via the creation and funding of the eight CRIs. In fact, arguably the Jordan taskforce’s recommendations, favoured by Oram, would ‘lock in’ the current allocation for longer.

Which is fine. Unless, like (apparently) Oram, you think that we’re focusing too much of our energies in some areas and not enough in others.

If so, then maybe we need a more contestable free-for-all without any ‘ring-fenced’ pots (which Callaghan seems to favour), and trust the [sic] “bureaucrats” who allocate it to make right decisions. But isn’t that exactly the opposite direction from what the Jordan taskforce, apparently uncontroversially, is recommending?

In any case, that won’t really resolve the Oram-Callaghan debate. Anytime the system makes the ‘wrong’ decision, it will still be easy to blame the ‘politicians’ or the ‘bureaucrats’, when in reality maybe it’s just that if you want things to go in a particular direction, then you have to set the basic operating framework with that direction in mind.

To me, that suggests that we need to have a well-informed public discussion about where we ought to be focusing our efforts, and why. If so, it will need to start by acknowledging that there are smart people with good arguments on both sides of the debate, and no easy answers.

Economic Prosperity – What’s under the Umbrella?

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 3.0

As I mentioned earlier, the topic about “A Progressive Path to Prosperity”, which is being proposed as part of the work programme, is intended as an umbrella topic.

The approach I want Policy Progress to take with this area is to avoid either simply coming up with a wishlist or grab-bag of appealing ideas, or choosing a few favourite hobby-horses and then working back to argue how advancing them will benefit the New Zealand economy.

Instead, I think we should think carefully about New Zealand’s economic performance and what’s been holding it back, and then figure out – from a progressive perspective – the best way to tackle these problems.

Ideally, this would add up to a list of things that, if they were all tackled effectively, would lead us onto the sort of growth path we’re all looking for.

Obviously, there’s a limit to how systematic you can be with this sort of approach – inevitably there’s a lot of judgment involved – but that’s the basic “lens” I’m proposing.

I’ve given this issue a bit of thought already, and here are my ’starters for ten’ for what we need to focus on. But I’m very interested in hearing from you – what’s missing? What’s on my draft list but actually unimportant (or, just as importantly, which problems have been mis-specified)?

Continuing to encourage/facilitate New Zealanders to raise their savings level
This was a major theme of Michael Cullen’s, and Kiwisaver should over time make a difference here, but there is still more to do.

Lifting private sector rates of capital formation and R & D investment
The low rate of private sector R & D investment is a well-rehearsed theme, although there are some structural factors involved (firm size). The R & D tax credits aimed to shift this, as did Fast Forward, but both have been abolished. Alongside this, though, general capital investment levels by New Zealand firms are not high, yet this is a key factor in driving labour productivity. There is a likely connection to the previous issue, and to New Zealand’s high interest rates, but there will be other drivers as well.

Addressing the high proportion of New Zealand graduates working overseas
The crisis rhetoric around the ‘brain drain’ is overblown, and often gives the impression that the consequences are catastrophic (they aren’t) and that the phenomenon is new (it isn’t). New Zealand and Ireland have for many years had a far higher proportion of people born in their country living abroad than any other industrialised country, and there is a (disproportionate?) number of highly-educated people amongst that group. Can we turn that around, and should we make better use of our diaspora?

Improving management capability
It is, I think, fairly well-acknowledged that New Zealand’s management capability levels are fairly weak overall, and particularly in our small and medium-sized firms. This is what often prevents them from making the transition to become the larger, export-oriented enterprises that we need more of. It’s not an easy issue to tackle, but it’s an important one.

Better skill utilisation in the workplace
I’ve already mentioned that productivity at the workplace level is what really counts in the productivity debate. We have good levels of skill development within the existing workforce (through industry training), but where we often seem to fall down is on making sure the skills being developed are made effective use of.

Rebalancing the economy to a more carbon-neutral mix
The climate challenge is a massive issue for our generation, and is widely written about. Policy Progress won’t be trying to add anything to the scientific debate about cause and effects, and even the issues around getting a proper incentive structure (e.g. an emissions trading scheme) have been pretty exhaustively canvassed. But how we restructure our economy in response over the medium to long term, and what challenges and opportunities that will entail, seems a very appropriate thing to consider as part of the “Progressive Path to Prosperity”. Changing our patterns of energy generation and use will be an important component of that.

The role and evolution of iwi enterprises in the economy.
A path to prosperity that’s progressive should give explicit consideration to Maori economic development. As treaty settlements continue, the nature of the challenge changes, and becomes increasingly one about effective resource development – and how that is reinvested in the community. From a wider progressive perspective, iwi enterprises could during the 21st century prove to be an uniquely New Zealand form of major business actor that effectively mixes economic, social and sustainability objectives. Or they could become simply another group of corporates. Is there anything we can, or should, do to influence the likelihood of the former outcome?

Oram v Callaghan: which way should science be going?

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010




Rod Oram has a column in the latest Sunday Star-Times (not online) that discusses reforms to science funding. There’s some good points in the article (and a few others I don’t agree with so much), but the main thing that struck me was when he discussed the scientific and commercialisation work that the Crown Research Institute (CRI) Industrial Research Ltd had done on superconductors:

But it will take many years to develop the product lines into sizable businesses – and the chance of New Zealand being home to much of that is minimal. We have virtually no experience, scale or markets in these areas of science, technology and manufacturing.

From a commercial perspective it was completely the wrong science to pursue. We must focus instead on the life and environmental fields where we have the scale and the leadership to attract international collaborators.

Sounds sensible. But here’s Paul Callaghan, probably New Zealand’s most high-profile scientist, in his 2009 book Wool to Weta. Transforming New Zealand’s Culture & Economy:

Given our capability in physical sciences and engineering, I think we could generate many more start-ups of the Rakon/Navman variety, and if a fraction of them succeed we may do far better than via the biotechnology route favoured by government. (p. 15)

. . . I am not advocating spending less on biotech research. But I am suggesting that we shouldn’t apply blinkers, that we do have a track record of producing great businesses out of physical sciences and engineering and that we have the potential to a great deal more. (p. 17)

. . . We should discard the myth that because we are good at farming, our best high-technology future lies necessarily in biotechnology. (p. 20)

I have a great deal of admiration for both Oram and Callaghan. I think they are two of New Zealand’s most insightful writers on science and innovation issues. Yet on this crucial issue of where we should be focussing our research capability, they fundamentally disagree.

Who is right? I do not know. But I do think this is an important issue, and it’s striking that this disagreement hasn’t really come to light before now. What that says to me is that (while successive governments have set out ‘official’ views) there hasn’t really been any robust public discussion about where New Zealand should be putting its science dollar.

One other thing: Oram suggests that we need “politicians and bureaucrats to give up micro-management and second-guessing and learn how to trust the scientists, their managers and directors to make good science and business decisions.”

Again, sounds good. But if you give the money to Industrial Research Ltd and leave them to make decisions, they aren’t going to invest in the life and environmental fields, are they? That’s where other CRIs are focussed, not IRL.

Key decisions about the appropriate allocation of science funding between different areas have already been made via the creation and funding of the eight CRIs. In fact, arguably the Jordan taskforce’s recommendations, favoured by Oram, would ‘lock in’ the current allocation for longer.

Which is fine. Unless, like (apparently) Oram, you think that we’re focusing too much of our energies in some areas and not enough in others.

If so, then maybe we need a more contestable free-for-all without any ‘ring-fenced’ pots (which Callaghan seems to favour), and trust the [sic] “bureaucrats” who allocate it to make right decisions. But isn’t that exactly the opposite direction from what the Jordan taskforce, apparently uncontroversially, is recommending?

In any case, that won’t really resolve the Oram-Callaghan debate. Anytime the system makes the ‘wrong’ decision, it will still be easy to blame the ‘politicians’ or the ‘bureaucrats’, when in reality maybe it’s just that if you want things to go in a particular direction, then you have to set the basic operating framework with that direction in mind.

To me, that suggests that we need to have a well-informed public discussion about where we ought to be focusing our efforts, and why. If so, it will need to start by acknowledging that there are smart people with good arguments on both sides of the debate, and no easy answers.